Advance notice of the wave's approach would have saved thousands of lives, according to officials and residents.
NEW YEAR MOURNING
Phone companies used call patterns to track down mobile phone users in Sri Lanka, then sent SMS messages to the phones and got 2,321 responses. One response led to 36 stranded Britons, and several others have been tracked down, inlcuding some who didn't know exactly where they were. [Link]
Hoteliers in Kenya have accused the government of failing to alert them on the tsunami. Ms Lucy Karume, general manager of the Indian Ocean Beach Club, said hoteliers learnt of the waves approaching Kenya through phone text messages from friends and foreign missions. [Link]
Tsunami devastates Somali island
Roads washed away by the sea are hampering the delivery of food aid to some 4,500 islanders affected.
Waves which swept 7,000km (4,000 miles) from the epicentre left a trail of smashed buildings and boats along the East African coast.
More than 130 people in East Africa are known to have died in the floods. [...]
No national leader wants to evacuate the entire coast for an indefinite period of time, causing an economic and refugee crisis on the scale of a world war, for what might be a false alarm. But nobody wants to ignore a warning, and perhaps be responsible for tens of millions of deaths. From a political standpoint, it's better not to have the warning at all.
Mark Tran and agencies
Thursday December 30, 2004
People run for higher ground in Cuddalore, 115 miles south of Madras, after hearing of possible further tsunamis. Photograph: Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP/Getty
Thousands of people in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu today fled to higher ground amid reports that the Indian government had issued a fresh tsunami alert.
The reports came despite the absence of any large aftershock and, as police sirens blared on beaches in Tamil Nadu - one of the areas hardest hit by Sunday's tidal waves - people streamed inland on foot or crammed into any vehicles they could find. Some shouted: "Waves are coming! Waves are coming!"
However, there were no immediate signs of giant waves, and the US Geological Survey said it was unaware of any aftershock large enough to trigger a fresh tsunami. The Indian government subsequently downgraded the alert, but the warning had already created panic.
A home ministry official said an alert had been issued as a precaution. "It is for a precautionary measure based on some information we have," the official said, without giving further details.
"A number of experts outside [the] country are suggesting that another tsunami may hit [the] Indian Ocean today afternoon in the event of an earthquake of high intensity, which may happen near [the] Australian region," the home ministry said in a message to state governments.
Adding to public concern, police in Tamil Nadu said aftershocks in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, near the epicentre of the quake that triggered the tsunami, were "likely" to cause high waves. They evacuated hundreds of residents from some coastal areas.
However, in Port Blair, the capital of the Andaman and Nicobar islands, local officials drove through the streets appealing for calm over loudspeakers, saying there was no imminent danger. "There is no reason to panic," an official in the back of a jeep said through a megaphone. "You can go back to your jobs or your home, wherever you please. There is no imminent danger."
As officials tried to calm growing fears, rescuers plied the dense forests on the islands, where authorities fear that as many as 10,000 people could be buried in mud and thick vegetation.
Many hungry villagers were surviving on coconut milk, rescuers said. Mohammad Yusef, a 60-year-old fisherman who fled his village and was sheltering in a Catholic church in Port Blair along with around 800 others, said all 15 villages on the coast of Nicobar island had been destroyed.
"There's not a single hut which is standing," he told the Associated Press. "Everything is gone. Most of the people have gone up to the hills and are afraid to come down."
Officials estimate that Sunday's tsunami killed at least 13,230 people in India, although only 7,330 deaths have been confirmed. In some areas, whole communities have been wiped out. The waves killed more than 87,000 people from Asia to Africa.
Panic was fuelled by one television station that reported a tsunami had hit and showed file footage of large waves. In Nagappattinam, on India's mainland - where more than 4,000 people died on Sunday - thousands of terrified residents, some carrying their last remaining belongings in suitcases balanced on their heads, ran through the streets and streamed out of the town in cars, buses, trucks and tractors.
"It's coming," resident Thamil Vanan said as he headed for safety, carrying his toddler son. "We saw what happened here - I don't want to stay, I'm not mad." But some people gathered on bridges to watch for waves.
Meanwhile, India has become the first country stricken by the Indian Ocean tsunami to decide to set up an early warning system, despite the expense and the fact that another tsunami may not occur for another 50 years or more.
Affected countries had no warning of Sunday's devastating sea wave in the area and are, therefore, not tracked. However, a system to raise the alarm and save lives already covers much of the Pacific Ocean.
As the death toll has risen, calls for a warning system have grown and India, which closely monitors other weather dangers such as monsoons, said it would now set one up.
"India will have deep ocean assessment reporting systems to monitor any change in the deep ocean ... data will be fed to a satellite which will provide real-time information on any change in ocean behaviour," Kapil Sibal, the minister for science and technology, told a news conference.
India had previously ruled out such a system because it had never been hit by a tsunami. "No government thought of it ... the last recorded tsunami has been in 1883. It was not in the horizon of our thoughts. Besides, tsunamis are not seen in the ocean, and these gain height only when they approach the shore," Mr Sibal added.
Although the authorities knew of the earthquake that had hit Sumatra, they could not assess that it would cause the tsunamis that struck the Indian coast two and a half hours later.
Economic analysts said that, although India was one of worst-affected countries in terms of deaths, the economic impact of the disaster would be minimal.
Private economic think-tanks and industry groups said Asia's fourth-largest economy would comfortably meet the costs of reconstruction and relief, estimated at £238.3m.
"Neither manufacturing nor any other economic activity is going to be adversely affected, barring shipping and tourism in Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar," Mahendra Sanghi, the president of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry, a leading industry lobby group, said.
Kalam calls for tsunami warning system
By Our Staff Reporter
HYDERABAD, DEC. 29. The President, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, called for a tsunami warning system along the entire Indian coastline on the lines of the one in the 27 Pacific nations, safeguarding them from distant source tsunamis.
``We can either have an Indian control centre that is connected to the Pacific tsunami warning centre or an indigenous integrated technological solution as a long term disaster management option,'' he suggested, addressing students of the University of Hyderabad from New Delhi over a videoconference, at its ninth convocation here on Tuesday.
In the 1970s, India had kept away from the Pacific tsunami warning system, which gives significant advance notice of the impending disaster to as many as 27 nations today, sometimes as much as three full hours.
``After an earthquake occurs beneath the seabed, it takes three hours for the dynamic waves of great height to build up. All communities within a three-hour travel time from the epicentre of the earthquake can be evacuated to safety thanks to the tsunami warning system. This only means that technologically there is a solution,'' Mr. Kalam said.
More challenges
He exhorted the Indian universities to work in tandem with the national research institutions, Indian Space Research Organisation, Departments of Science & Technology, Ocean Development and Atomic Energy to evolve an integrated technological solution in the form of sensor, communication system, networking and high intensity tidal wave warning system. ``Forewarning systems are a must to face the fury of nature,'' he said, adding that there were several such challenges on the national scene faced by the people in their day-to-day life.
The President underscored the need for university teachers and students to be sensitive to such grave national disasters and development needs to enable universities `productively' and directly participate in the welfare of the people.
Highlighting its immense research potential, the University Vice-Chancellor, a former colleague of Mr. Kalam and space scientist of repute, Kota Harinarayana, said the National Assessment and Accreditation Council of the University Grants Commission had awarded the university its highest rating on a five point scale qualifying it for a special UGC development grant of Rs. 30 crores for promoting research and interface studies.
While the university's research and development funding for 92 projects in the year 2000 was Rs. 15 crores, it had increased to Rs. 40 crores covering 160 projects this year. The University also signed as many as 127 Memoranda of Understanding with different public and private organisations.
The University Chancellor, Justice P.N. Bhagwati, conferred degrees on 3,687 graduates of which, 311 were Ph.Ds, 551 M.Phils, 290 M.Techs and 2,480 postgraduate degrees in various disciplines.
Needed: a coastal hazard study
By N. Gopal Raj
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM, DEC. 29. It is essential to study the level of seismic hazard along the Indian coast and examine the possibility of such earthquakes setting off tsunamis, says R.N. Iyengar of the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.
The last tsunami to hit the Indian subcontinent was caused by an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 to 6.7 off the Mekhran coast in present day Pakistan, says Dr. Iyengar, who is a former director of the Central Building Research Institute. He quotes from a 1948 report published by the India Meteorological Department that investigated the quake that occurred on November 28, 1945 and the "disastrous seismic wave" that followed.
The tsunami left a trail of destruction along the Mekhran coast. Pusni town, an important trading post, was washed away by a 15 m-high wave. In Karachi, more than 400 km away, the port was damaged, and there was loss of life and property along the Karachi coast.
People were killed by the surging waters even in Mumbai, about 1,000 km away. The high waves created tangible effect in Karwar in Karnataka, about 1,600 km away. It was the farthest place to be affected. There, the waves flooded creeks and inlets, and boats were ripped from their moorings.
"We have many important industrial units and installations close to the coast, and we must not be caught napping," Dr. Iyengar told The Hindu. A detailed hazard assessment had to be made keeping in mind the past seismic activity all along the coast.
Army took six hours to get ready for relief
By Our Special Correspondent
CHENNAI, DEC. 29 . The first Army columns took six hours to get started for relief operations after the tsunami stuck the Coromandel coast on Sunday.
"The State Government asked for relief at approximately 0915 hrs on Sunday. That's the first time the information came in ... but the information was very vague at that stage," said the Southern Army Commander, B. S. Takhar. "We have to go by the information that trickles in and builds up over a period of time ... in every situation the complete picture is built up over a period of time," Lt. Gen. Takhar said.
There was no delay on the part of the State Government in seeking help. "There has been total coordination between the Chief Secretary and my Area Commander right from the day one," he told presspersons here today.
Government sources, lauding the Army for relief efforts, said it delayed providing relief to areas outside Chennai. It began effectively only on Monday. The Local Area Command was unwilling to move personnel out of Chennai without clear instructions from New Delhi. Finally, it required the intervention at the highest level of the State Government to move the units.
On December 26, the Army only knew which areas were affected but nothing more. This was because communication was cut off from the affected areas. "The initial information was that casualties had taken place and the number was less than what was now being quoted."
Then information built up on December 27 and 28. At 1 p.m. on December 28, the Army decided to deploy "much more resources than the earlier two days," said the Southern Command General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, who is camping here to oversee relief operations. The total number of people killed in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, "as of information available at 0800 hrs today" was 5,237. In Nagapattinam, the toll was 2,933, while in Kanyakumari 806 and in Cuddalore 507. In Pondicherry, according to the Army, 478 people were killed. As many as 1,199 were injured.
Now there were 2,000 personnel working round the clock in the badly affected areas of the State. The Territorial Army battalions in Tiruchi and Coimbatore had very few personnel, and hence they were not moved. These battalions were deployed in Jammu and Kashmir. There was no dearth of manpower, equipment, rations or medicines. In his opinion, it will take three-four days to restore some semblance of normality. If there is any area that needs relief, the Army could be contacted (phone: 044-2531 6106, 2536 8685).
An army engineering team carried out a reconnaissance of an east coast road bridge at Karaikkal, part of which was washed away. A 100-feet bailey bridge was moved to the area on Tuesday. Construction will begin tomorrow, and is likely to be completed by afternoon. The class-nine bridge will be thrown open to traffic on Thursday evening.
The Army has sent two ships with ten tonnes each of supplies and medicines to Sri Lanka. It has also readied a team of 136 personnel and medical specialists. They are waiting in Bhopal to be airlifted.
Rations, drinking water and communication equipment has been despatched to the Car Nicobar island. The Navy has deployed 11 ships in the area.
He said that in all affected areas, there was effective coordination between the security forces and the civil administration. "I expect the relief work to go on for a few days before the situation stabilises."
Tunnel vision as policy
Moral of the tsunami story: self-reliance can be the perfect recipe for self-destruction
Wiser in hindsight as always, India is now considering measures to protect itself against the kind of natural disaster that rocked the nation on Sunday. The tsunami brought with it the realisation that it does not pay to be isolated from scientific collaboration on an international scale, given the indubitable fact that had we been linked to systems like the Pacific Tsunami Warning System, we may have been able to save thousands of lives. Escaping a tsunami is, after all, a fairly simple exercise which involves running away for a kilometre or so from the shoreline when it hits. Therefore monitoring its progress and warning vulnerable communities becomes absolutely crucial.
But for this to happen India needs, first of all, to discard one of its most valued mantras which has become a national ideology: self-reliance. Self-reliance can sometimes be the perfect recipe for self-destruction, as the recent tragedy demonstrated. We are justifiably proud of our pool of scientific talent but if it should result in a fortress mentality, or cause us to reject the option of benefitting from enormous advances in the technology and methods of weather prediction, it does not help us. Tunnel vision cannot be policy, especially in an area like weather forecasting, where developments taking place hundreds of kilometres away crucially impinge on national welfare and well-being. At least twice in the last two decades, India has been the victim of its own ignorance. In 1987, we were clueless about the El Nino phenomenon and paid a heavy price because we were unprepared for the unprecedented drought that descended upon us. While the US had intimation of a major El Nino visitation at least six months in advance, we were left staring blankly at the cruel blue skies which signified a failed monsoon. On Sunday, we had to learn that lesson all over again.
It is time, then, to seriously consider a tsunami alert system for the Indian Ocean that is linked with the one that is already in operation for the Pacific Ocean. Such systems read and put out relevant data which monitors around the world — from undersea gauges to satellite transmitters — pick up. Indeed the tragedy behind the present tragedy, as this newspaper has reported, was that 26 countries were alerted within 15 minutes of Sunday’s disturbances on the Pacific Ocean floor but India was not on that list. In our moment of grief and shock, let us seize the moment and work towards instituting such a monitoring system which will help not just India but all the nations in the region.
Putting in the sensors is the easy part - the difficult part... would be coordination between emergency response agencies in the region.
India to set up tsunami warning system
By: Agencies
December 30, 2004
New Delhi: India became the first nation stricken by the Indian Ocean tsunami to decide to set up an early warning system, despite the expense and the fact that a tsunami may not occur for another 50 years or more.
Affected countries had no warning of Sunday’s devastating sea wave that killed over 80,000 people because tsunamis are rare in the area and are, therefore, not tracked.
However, a system to raise the alarm and save lives already covers much of the Pacific Ocean.
As the death toll has risen, so have calls for a warning system and India, which closely monitors other weather hitches like monsoons, said it would now set one up in response.
“India will have deep ocean assessment reporting systems to monitor any change in the deep ocean... data will be fed to a satellite which will provide real-time information on any change in ocean behaviour,” Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal told a news conference.
He said the system would cost around Rs 125 crore — one-eighth as much as a system considered by the government but ruled out because “India is not a Pacific country and it never had a history of tsunami”.
“No government thought of it... the last recorded tsunami has been in 1883.
It was not in the horizon of our thoughts. Besides, tsunamis are not seen in the ocean and these gain height only when they approach the shore,” he added.
Though the authorities knew of the earthquake that hit Sumatra at 6.29 am IST, they could not assess that it would cause tsunamis which hit the Indian coast after about 2.5 hours, he said.
