Guest Commentary: Allan Donaldson

Professor Allan Donaldson of Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada makes a very important point on the enormous value of promoting citizen awareness on the cause and effects of Tsunamis.

From:     Allan Donaldson
Date:     Saturday, January 01, 2005 9:08 PM
To:       tsunami @ cheeni.net
Subject:  COMMENTARY ON THE 2004 BOXING DAY TSUNAMI

The Newsletter for the March 1978 (PDF, 2.71MB) International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) contains a section outlining "Proposals for a tsunami educational programme", clearly outlining sensible ways in which to involve members of the scientific community, co-ordinators of the Tsunami Warning System and members of the general public.

Here we are, more than 26 years later, and although an impressive warning system has since been established for tsunami threats within the Pacific Ocean, little has been done for the other oceans, and it is clear that the envisioned educational program has a long way to go. Although a glossy 15 page informative brochure can be downloaded from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website, this is of little help to coastal inhabitants lacking computers (or lacking awareness of the availability of this information & advisability of acquiring it, for those who do have computers). Grassroots education at the local level is absolutely essential. One can only surmise that such education has not taken place in countries around the Indian Ocean because of the lack of support from local governments -- in spite of several such countries having sent delegates to ITIC meetings for many years.

In the few days since the devastating Indian Ocean 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, considerable rhetoric about the need for effective warning systems has focussed on continuously monitored submarine pressure sensors and tide gauges, such as those now in place for the Pacific. This is all well and good, and should be the ultimate goal for all ocean basins. In the meantime, however, a simple program of education should be given priority, and procedures for cautionary tsunami warnings should be put in place immediately. When a deepwater submarine seismic event rated at Magnitude 8.0 or higher (perhaps even >M 7.0?) -- or a volcanic event comparable to the 1883 collapse of Krakatoa that killed more than 36,000 -- takes place, provisionary warnings should be immediately issued to all shorelines within the range of a potential tsunami. Pressure sensors and tide gauges certainly serve to refine information about geometry and force of ensuing tsunamis, but precious time is lost in analysis. If local populations occupying threatened areas have been provided with advance education about the potential results of a tsunami, then straightforward notice (radio, TV, loudspeakers) that a destructive wave MIGHT strike their shore within X hours should be sufficient to get them moving to higher ground. Similarly, tourists so alerted would realize that a visit to the rain forests would be a wiser choice than the beaches, until an "all clear" notice comes through. Submarine earthquakes higher than M8.0 are relatively rare events, and because they commonly are accompanied by significant tsunami-producing offsets along faults/plate boundaries, warning of a probable tsunami immediately on detection of the epicentre would hardly be "calling wolf". Had such a protocol been in place for countries in and around the Indian Ocean at the time of the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, the death toll could have been dramatically reduced.

Allan Donaldson
Professor of Earth Sciences
Carleton University
Ottawa, Canada
jadonald@ccs.carleton.ca