GPS Could Speed Tsunami Warnings

http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,69847,00.html?tw=rss.TOP

By Elizabeth Svoboda
02:00 AM Dec. 19, 2005 PT

GPS satellite receivers are already navigational must-haves for hikers and drivers. Now scientists are hatching plans to press them into service as tsunami predictors.

International organizations like the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, or PTWC, in Hawaii currently depend on coastal seismic stations to record deep-sea earthquakes that could cause giant waves. But according to Jeff Freymueller, a geophysicist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, data from GPS receivers could provide quicker, more accurate estimates of the magnitude of a tsunami-causing quake, buying time for evacuation. Freymueller presented his findings at this week's American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco.

Unlike seismometers, GPS receivers can measure the movement of the ground in real time. Because quake magnitude is a direct function of how much the earth shifts, Freymueller has demonstrated that the receivers can obtain precise measurements of a massive quake's severity in as little as 20 minutes.

"Seismometers measure the velocity of the ground, and you have to collect a number of cycles of the important wave in order to get that measurement," he said. "GPS receivers measure the static displacement of the earth, and after the first few minutes of a quake, that doesn't change much."

Freymueller envisions a new tsunami-warning strategy that would use seismic and GPS data in tandem to calculate a wave-causing quake's strength soon after its onset. This would enable more-accurate computer simulations of the coming wave, allowing more-targeted evacuation strategies. Planting the receivers every hundred miles in tsunami-prone areas, he added, could be done in a matter of months, and each receiver would cost less than $10,000.

"Early warnings from GPS could save thousands of lives," he said. "In last year's Indian Ocean tsunami, there were potentially one to two hours for evacuation, had an accurate warning system been in place. Every minute counts."

Seismic measurements of very large quakes like the one that caused last year's Indian Ocean tsunami take several hours to fine-tune, because the moving vibrations must be recorded at a variety of stations in different locations. When the quake that caused the giant Southeast Asian wave first hit, scientists at the PTWC estimated its magnitude at 8.0, but revised their estimate to 8.5 an hour later. After a few more hours passed, a team at Harvard University pegged the quake at 8.9. The final reading, 9.2, was not agreed upon until months afterward.

Yehuda Bock, a geologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, has also investigated the possibilities of using GPS receivers in tsunami-warning systems. His results are similar to Freymueller's, indicating the receivers can gauge the ground movements created by tsunami-causing quakes with unprecedented precision and speed.

"With GPS, the displacements are measured second by second," said Bock, who also presented at the American Geophysical Union conference. "Within 70 seconds you have a good idea of the final deformation." In addition to predicting tsunamis, he thinks GPS modules could be used to monitor the activity of volcanoes and landslides in real time.

Like Freymueller and Bock, Peter MacDoran, a GPS expert who works for George Washington University's Space and Advanced Communications Research Institute, wants to make GPS receivers part of disaster-prediction networks. But he foresees using them in a different way: to track the movement of tsunami-associated pressure waves in the Earth's atmosphere.

"Quakes that cause tsunamis create deformation on the surface of the water, and that causes an atmospheric 'thump,'" MacDoran said. "A compression wave travels into the upper atmosphere, and that disturbance causes subtle changes in the way GPS signals travel." Digital processing of the changed signals coming from nearby receivers would indicate that a tsunami was imminent.

MacDoran has proposed setting up networks of GPS-connected personal computers to monitor these signals, especially in tsunami-prone areas like Southeast Asia, the United States' Atlantic coast and the Pacific Northwest.

He emphasized, however, that his goal is to complement seismic-based tsunami-detection strategies, not replace them. "The quake sensors we have work well. Seismic sensing is a highly developed art," he said. "It just doesn't give you all the information you need."

How to Build a Global Internet Tsunami Warning System in a Month

Cringley is a respected technology forecaster. Here are his words from almost a year ago, and yet we have no such system in place. His idea could work, from my personal reading of the problem statement, it doesn't seem that hard. Where have all the volunteer programmers gone?

-- tsunamiwarning

(Source: http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20041230.html)

December 30, 2004

Wave of Change

How to Build a Global Internet Tsunami Warning System in a Month

By Robert X. Cringely

A friend of mine is missing in southern Asia.

She isn't missing in the sense that anyone saw her swept away by this week's horrible tsunami, but she and her entire family haven't been heard from, either so of course, I am worried. That worry makes real for me a disaster of such horrific proportions that without a personal connection, it simply can't be real to most of us. By the time all the bodies have been counted and estimated, probably 100,000 people will have died. If cholera follows, as it tends to in that part of the world, another 40,000 or more could follow. That's a lot of people, 140,000 -- enough people that we ought to do something to make sure it doesn't happen again. So of course, there is lots of talk about tsunami warning systems and global cooperation, but I think that's just going about solving the problem the wrong way. We don't need governments and huge sensor arrays to warn people on the beach about the next huge wave approaching at 400 miles-per-hour. Thanks to the Internet, we can probably do it by ourselves.

Here's the problem with big multi-government warning systems. First, we have a disaster. Then, we have a conference on the disaster, then plans are proposed, money is appropriated, and three to five years later, a test system is ready. It isn't the final system, of course, but it still involves vast sensor arrays both above and below the surface of the ocean, satellite communication, and a big honking computer down in the bowels of the Department of Commerce or maybe at NASA. That's just the detection part. The warning part involves multilateral discussions with a dozen nations, a treaty, more satellite communication, several computer networks, several television and radio networks, and possibly a system of emergency transmitters. Ten years, a few million dollars and we're ready.

We can't rely on governments to do this kind of work anymore. They just take too darned long and spend too much money for what you get. Besides, since governments are almost totally reactive, what they'll build is a warning system for precisely the tsunami we just had -- a tsunami bigger than any in that region since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. One could argue (and some experts probably will) that it might even be a waste of money to build a warning system for a disaster that might not happen for another 121 years.

What we need is a tsunami warning system not just for parts of Asia, but for anywhere in the world that might be subject to such conditions. And that decision about what beaches to protect ought to come not from Washington, D.C., or Jakarta, or any other capital city, but from the beach people, themselves. If you are concerned about a giant tidal wave taking out your village, it might be a good idea to build your own warning system, you retired engineer, you Radio Shack manager, you harbor master, you radio amateur, you nerd with a suntan.

It can be done.

The Tsunami Warning System (TWS) in the Pacific Ocean shows us how such a warning system can be run with the cooperation of 26 countries. Maybe we can do the same thing, just without all that cooperation. TWS is based on crunching two kinds of data -- seismic activity and changes in sea level measured by tide gauges. Most tsunamis begin with an earthquake, the severity and epicenter of which can tell a lot about whether a tsunami is likely, how strong it will be, and in what direction it is likely to go. From the TWS, the first warning is based purely on such seismic data. But once the big wave starts rolling it will have an effect on the level of the sea, itself, which is routinely monitored by weather stations of many types. This additional data gives a better idea of how bad the wave is really going to be, so in the TWS system, it is used to justify expanding the warning to other communities beyond those warned purely on the basis of seismic data.

Depending on where the originating earthquake is, the tsunami can be minutes or hours from crashing into a beach. This week's wave took about 90 minutes to reach Sri Lanka, just over 600 miles from the epicenter. That not only means the wave was traveling at over 400 miles-per-hour, it also means that had a warning system been in place, there would easily have been time to get the people who were affected in Sri Lanka to higher ground.

So to start, we need raw seismic data. If you take a look at the fourth of this week's links, you'll see that plenty of such data are available. Thanks to the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, here is one place where you can find real time data from 199 seismographs around the world. There are also links to a dozen regional operations that consolidate such data. The data is available. Tide gauge data is available, too, though there is less of it, and aggregation will require more effort, so I say let's just stick to seismic data for our warning system.

Here's where we need the help of a tsunami expert, someone who can help us calculate the size and direction of a likely tsunami based on the available seismic data. Fortunately, there has been quite a bit of work done in this area of study (see link #5), and appropriate computer codes that can be run on a personal computer either exist or can be derived, perhaps by reflexively evaluating seismic data from known tsunami events. But remember that what we care about here is not global tsunami warning but LOCAL tsunami warning (Is it going to hit MY beach?), so the required seismic data sources can pretty easily be limited to those with an uninterrupted aspect of the target beach, which means half a dozen seismographs, not 199.

Since the basic question is fairly simple -- "Is my beach going to be hit by a destructive tsunami and when?" -- and the required data sources are limited, I figure we won't need a supercomputer.

The seismographs are online, we gather the data using XML, continuously crunch it using the codes I am assuming already exist, then we need the warning, which I would flash on the screen of my PC down at the surf shop using a Javascript widget built with Konfabulator, the most beautiful widget generator of all. Looking just like a TV weather map, the widget would flash a warning and even include a countdown timer just like in the movies.

You don't need an international consortium to build such a local tsunami warning system. You don't even need broadband. The data is available, processing power is abundant and cheap. With local effort, there is no reason why every populated beach on earth can't have a practical tsunami warning system up and running a month from now. That's Internet time for you, but in this case, its application can protect friends everywhere from senseless and easily avoidable death.

Links of the Week

Computerworld
Computerworld says we need a tsunami warning network.
(http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/management/
itspending/story/0,10801,98582,00.html?source=NLT_PM&nid=98582)

Krakatoa
Krakatoa in 1883 was a far bigger seismic event, but loss of life was less simply because the coastal populations then were smaller.
(http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP134319.htm)

Tsunami Warning System
There already is a tsunami warning system for the Pacific Ocean, just not one for the Indian Ocean.
(http://www.geophys.washington.edu/tsunami/general/
warning/warning.html)

Raw Seismic Data
Raw seismic data and plenty of it.
(http://www.geophys.washington.edu/seismosurfing.html)

Konfabulator
Konfabulator, my favorite widget builder.
(http://www.konfabulator.com)

Official announcement : An Indian Tsunami early warning system in the Indian Ocean soon

Thursday, December 15, 2005

PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

SETTING UP OF AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR TSUNAMI AND STORM SURGES IN INDIAN OCEAN

16:41 IST

Rajya Sabha

The Government is setting up an Early Warning system for Tsunami and Storm Surges in Indian Ocean at the total cost of Rs. 125 crores with the following components:

Strengthening of the existing seismological network to indicate, near real time occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes;

Installation of tsunami warning sensors close to the ocean bottom at appropriate locales in the Indian Ocean, with real time connectivity;

Tide gauge and data buoys networking to validate arrival of tsunami waves at the coast;

Modelling of the inundation scenarios for the entire coast and mapping of potential risk areas;

Collection of information, analysis and generating status advisories.

A centre would be set up at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (ICOIS), Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh on a 24X7 basis. The system is scheduled to be operationalized by September, 2007. The Tsunami Warning System is for the whole country.

In a written reply in Rajya Sabha, the Minister for Science and Technology and Ocean Development, Shri Kapil Sibal said there is no assistance taken from foreign firms in this regard. He said the Indian system is the best system for our country.

PRA:AD:NC

Evacuation in progress in Chennai

[11:55 PM 3/28/2005]

I've heard from my family in Chennai that the residents along the Elliots beach in Chennai are being evacuated. However, news reports are indicating that the tsunami has been milder this time, and it is heading away from India and towards Mauritius.

Fresh quake reported off the coast of Sumatra - 8.5

[NEWS LINK]



Quake off Indonesia triggers tsunami fears

By Associated Press | March 28, 2005

BANDA ACEH, Indonesia -- A major earthquake struck off the west coast of Indonesia's Sumatra Island late Monday, and officials warned that a tsunami could strike the area. Residents of Banda Aceh fled their homes in panic.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the temblor, described by one of the agency's geologists as an aftershock of the devastating Dec. 26 quake, measured a magnitude of 8.2.

Officials issued a tsunami warning for residents of southern Thai provinces, three months after a tsunami devastated parts of Indonesia and other countries in the region. The quake occurred at 11:09 p.m. local time at a depth of nearly 19 miles, the USGS in Golden, Colo., said.

Japan's Meteorological Agency said the quake registered 8.5.

Tremors were felt throughout peninsular Malaysia's west coast, causing thousands of residents to flee high-rise apartment buildings and hotels. There were no immediate reports of any casualties or major damage.

"I was getting ready for bed, and suddenly, the room started shaking," said Kuala Lumpur resident Jessie Chong. "I thought I was hallucinating at first, but then I heard my neighbors screaming and running out."

Chalermchai Aekkantrong, deputy director of Thailand's meteorological department, told a radio station that officials were asking people near the coast to evacuate, although there were no immediate reports of a tsunami.

Tremors form the quake could be felt in the Thai capital Bangkok for several minutes beginning at about 11:20 p.m.

The Dec. 26 magnitude-9 undersea earthquake, the world's biggest in 40 years, and the huge tsunami it sent charging across the Indian Ocean at the speed of a passenger jet killed more than 174,000 people and left another 106,000 missing.

More than 1.5 million people were left homeless in 11 countries.

Row over tsunami warning system

Delegates have been seeing effects of the disaster at first hand

Representatives of over 50 countries and organisations have clashed over the location of a co-ordination centre for an Indian Ocean tsunami warning system.

Thailand proposed that the centre should be in its capital, Bangkok, but was opposed by India and Indonesia.

They agreed to set up smaller regional facilities, in response to last month's tsunami which killed more than 250,000.

Thailand is hosting the two-day meeting for affected countries on the ravaged resort island of Phuket.

The representatives decided that work should start immediately on strengthening existing national and specialised institutions.

Correspondents say national egos appear to be getting in the way of international co-operation.

Decentralised network

Delegates at the meeting discussed where to base a centre for collecting seismic and oceanographical data from nations on the ocean rim and issuing alerts to vulnerable areas.

Bangkok's proposal to set up a regional trust fund, for which it pledged $10m, was given a cool reception.

India and Indonesia also said they wanted to host the centre.

But the participants reached a compromise, that a UN agency, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, should co-ordinate a decentralised network.

"We agree that the role of the United Nations is the most important in ensuring that all aspects in building an early warning system are co-ordinated effectively and timely," said Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, quoted by Reuters news agency.

"We agree to advance the establishment of such an arrangement through organisation of expert meetings and needs assessments, to be undertaken with the support of relevant regional and international institutions and governments."

Link

Date set for India tsunami system

India's tsunami warning system will be operational in two to three years' time, a government minister has said.

The $27m system will give the speed of a tsunami and the regions most at risk, said science and technology minister, Kapil Sibal.

The announcement came as the Indian navy said chances of finding more tsunami survivors were now remote.

More than 10,000 people died in India. Around 5,500 are still missing - almost all in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Swept clean

Speaking in Bangalore, Mr Sibal said the warning system would involve installing Deep Ocean Assessment Reporting Technology at a depth of six kilometres.

The warning system was formally agreed at a cabinet meeting on Sunday.

The Andaman and Nicobar islands were hit soon after the earthquake on 26 December but the tsunami took a further two hours to reach the Indian mainland.

The navy said on Wednesday it would continue rescue operations but held out little hope of finding more survivors.

Indian naval chief Admiral Arun Prakash said: "Knowing the seas as they are it is unlikely that any more bodies will be recovered and the statistical chances of finding survivors is now very remote."

After visiting several affected islands in the archipelago, the admiral said: "I saw with great awe the mind-boggling destruction. Vegetation has been swept clean and habitats totally destroyed."

Relief workers are now struggling to provide shelter for up to 40,000 homeless people in the island chain before monsoon rains begin in April.

On the mainland, villages hit by the tsunami are hoping companies will adopt them to provide funding for communications and infrastructure on a long-term basis.

Government official in the worst hit district of Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu, J Radhakrishnan, told the AFP news agency: "We don't want people who come here for one or two days, do the rounds and go away."

He said leading firms Infosys and Tata were among those offering help.

How does a Tsunami Early Warning System work ?

By Richard Ingham in Paris
Wednesday, 05 January , 2005, 10:29

A tsunami alert system is a combination of real-time sensors, data-crunching computers, orbiting satellites -- and the nuts-and-bolts task of training the public to respond to warnings.

This mix of silicon and psychology is already in place in the Pacific Ocean and will be the format for providing the Indian Ocean with its own early-warning system, experts say.

The first political steps towards setting up a regional warning network are likely to be taken at a major summit in Jakarta on Thursday to discuss the relief effort for the December 26 disaster.

That will be followed up with technical work among large countries at the final day of a UN-sponsored World Conference on Disaster Reduction, taking place in Kobe, Japan, from January 18-22, the organisers told AFP Tuesday.

"A tsunami early warning system is not a top-down, instrument-only initiative," Reid Basher of the UN's International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) told AFP in an interview from Bonn.

"The biggest challenge is how to get the message across to people at risk and to get them to respond." The matrix for the Indian Ocean network is the Tsunami Warning System (TWS), operating in the Pacific since 1968.

When an earthquake occurs, participating states send seismic data to a centre based in Hawaii, which assesses whether the temblor's location and severity could generate a tsunami.

If so, it sends out a warning of an imminent hazard, detailing the wave's predicted arrival at estimated coastal locations within a given time. This information is supplemented by tidal gauges, buoys and pressure sensors that are scattered around coastlines and on the ocean floor.

These detect the passage of a big wave and radio the data back to the national and regional centre, thus fine-tuning knowledge as to the size of the wave, its direction and speed. If no wave is detected, the warning is cancelled.

In many countries, setting up the system of seismographs and wave monitors will be the biggest expense, said Basher.

"In many places, the existing instruments are used for scientific research or as historical gauges of sea levels. They have to be upgraded, so that they provide real fast, real-time monitoring."

But hi tech is only one phase of a tsunami alert system. A country may well receive an early warning, several hours or more before a Great Wave strikes.

But to make use of it, that country has to have an efficient national alert system, with equipment which functions, with competent officials and a public trained to respond swiftly and without panic, Basher said.

It means carrying out awareness campaigns in homes, schools, hospitals and businesses in vulnerable regions.

This is the time-honoured business of using posters, radio and TV messages and carrying out occasional training exercises, advising people to evacuate to higher ground, not to head to the beach to watch the incoming wave and to stay tuned to local media until the emergency is over.

For a monitoring system to operate in the Indian Ocean, "at least four or five countries" would be needed to pool their efforts. Fewer than that means there would be insufficient coverage of the region, said Basher. He put costs at "at least a few million" dollars per country per year.

Such investment is worth it, says Frank Gonzalez, a tsunami researcher at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. "The commitment needed is not insignificant for a country or an international community, but there is no doubt in my mind that tens of thousands of lives would have been saved in Asia," he said last week.

The Indian Ocean is not the only place to be lacking a tsunami alert. The system is also absent in the Mediterranean and Atlantic, both of which are vulnerable to rare but potentially murderous giant waves, according to scientists.

Tsunami meet to focus on warning system

An ambitious plan to set up an Indian Ocean tsunami warning system is expected to dominate the tsunami meet.

The upcoming gathering will see leaders from stricken nations and world donors seeking to prevent a repeat of last week's carnage.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizum, US Secretary of State Colin Powell, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and top European Union officials will attend the summit on Thursday. Japan's $500 million pledge makes it the biggest contributor so far.

Florida Gov Jeb Bush, the US president's brother, and World Bank President James Wolfensohn will be there as well. The summit in Jakarta is being organised by the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Rebuilding communities

Governments and global organisations have already pledged $2 billion in tsunami disaster relief, according to the United Nations.

With aid and relief workers already pouring into devastated nations, Thursday's focus will be on rebuilding communities.

Thailand is pushing hard for the system, which it believes will offer peace of mind to the millions of foreign tourists its economy depends on. It will also and guarantee thousands of tourism jobs in the region, much of which was left in ruins by the Dec 26 disaster.

Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai suggested yesterday that a part of the money pledged to the relief effort from around the world should go to setting up a warning system. (AP)
[Link]

Lieberman proposes tsunami warning system

By NOREEN GILLESPIE
Associated Press Writer

HARTFORD, Conn. -- To help warn against another deadly tsunami, the United States needs to pursue the development of a global detection and warning system, Sen. Joe Lieberman said Monday.

Lieberman, D-Conn., said he will introduce legislation in Congress that would fund development of such a system.

"When you set the impact of a tsunami in terms of life lost and the cost of repair against the relatively modest investment of the detection and warning system, you just ask yourself, 'Why haven't we done this globally yet?"' Lieberman said.

The Dec. 26 tsunami in the Indian Ocean was triggered by the world's most powerful earthquake in 40 years. The death toll has risen at least 139,000 across 11 countries.

Scientists at warning centers in Hawaii and Alaska have been monitoring waters for more than half a century for earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect their two states, as well as other nations.

But the Indian Ocean did not have the sophisticated equipment that can detect and warn residents about the powerful waves. Other uncovered areas include the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean.

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that 50 tsunamis have hit the Caribbean in the past 150 years. In the Atlantic, there have been more than 30, but none since 1964. Scientists have expressed concern about seismic activity near Puerto Rico.

Deep-sea sensors can help detect when tsunamis are forming. Buoys also can warn about a change in sea level. Lieberman estimated that the flat cost of such a system _ without maintenance and other operational costs _ would be about $10 million.

"We ought to take the tragedy in Asia as a warning and try to get this done quickly," Lieberman said.

Other officials have also warned that tsunami warning and detection systems need improvement in recent days.

Conrad C. Lautenbacher, chief of the NOAA, said in a recent interview that he has ordered an internal review of the agency's response to the quake and tsunamis. He said he also asked staff to investigate creating a more global warning system.

"If we can improve it, believe me, we will improve it," he said.

The next frontiers in tsunami science

from the January 03, 2005 edition

APPROACH: A tourist's photo shows the approach of tsunami waves last week, as seen from a hotel on the Malaysian coast. Resort personnel saw the waves approaching and called in beachside guests inside. ERIC SKITZI/AP

Research offers new hope - from timely forecasts to building codes and maps of potential destruction.
By Peter N. Spotts | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

A quiet technological revolution is under way that could significantly improve scientists' ability to gauge undersea earthquake and tsunami hazards.

Researchers are pinging the seafloor with advanced sonar. Others are cross-examining coral to establish a region's offshore earthquake history. Still others are designing and testing sophisticated computer models for predicting how a tsunami could affect a broad segment of seacoast or a specific waterfront, block by block.

The goal is to help marine geophysicists track the restless motions of Earth's crust - especially the strain that waxes and wanes along submarine faults and plate boundaries - with a precision that only their landlubber colleagues have achieved.

The results, researchers say, could lead to more timely tsunami warnings, a clearer idea of the effect a tsunami could have on specific locations, and building and zoning codes that could significantly reduce the loss of life when a tsunami strikes.

The effort is now goaded by a sterner resolve since tsunamis swept across the Indian Ocean following an enormous earthquake off the coast of Sumatra early Dec. 26, killing well over 100,000 people.

Researchers note that an untold number of lives could have been saved if existing techniques, such as coastal tide gauges or undersea pressure sensors that detect a tsunami's passing, had been operating.

Yet, they add, warnings are virtually worthless without a local civil-defense infrastructure to receive and act on them. Indeed, reports emerging from the region over the weekend talk of misrouted government faxes, low-level officials not knowing whom to call, and governments failing to relay warnings for fear of antagonizing tourists with false alarms.

"Scientists, technologists, people who work in disaster management have been too complacent about prioritizing areas that need preemptive action," says Arthur Lerner-Lam, director of the Center for Hazards and Risk Research at Columbia University's Earth Institute. "If there's any good to come out of a situation like this, it will provide a wake-up call to take these threats seriously and make preemptive investments in warning technologies and mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of populations."

Typically, tsunamis are triggered when large earthquakes alter the height of the sea floor where the quake occurs. This means that unlike wind-driven surface waves, which also can reach towering heights, a tsunami involves the entire water column from sea floor to surface. This gives it its destructive punch.

"People don't appreciate how powerful water can be," says Peter Raad, a professor of mechanical engineering at Southern Methodist University in Dallas who is working on ways to forecast a tsunami's impact on structures. A 10-foot wall of water moving at 30 miles an hour can strike with an initial force of 5 million to 6 million pounds, he says. The sustained flow behind the initial strike reaches hundreds of thousands of pounds of force.

While earthquakes are a primary source of tsunamis, undersea landslides, collapsing cliffs, and calving ice floes have also triggered them. Even human activities - from the explosion of a loaded ammo ship in Halifax Harbor during World War I to the collapse of landfill for an airport runway extension off Nice, France, in 1979, which set off a larger submarine landslide - have been responsible.

The East Coast has been hit by several small tsunamis, thought to have been triggered by submarine landslides or quakes along the mid-Atlantic ridge. The Mediterranean Sea and the Caribbean also have been hit. A subduction zone - an undersea trench where one plate of the Earth's crust plunges beneath another - stretches across the sea floor north of Puerto Rico and shows evidence of large-scale undersea landslides.

"The Puerto Rico Trench and the Scotia Trench in the South Atlantic have caused us to rethink the tsunami hazard in the Atlantic," says Jian Lin, a geophysicist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Mass.

Scientists face multiple challenges in characterizing earthquake risks on submarine faults and their potential for tsunamis. For instance, it's difficult to establish rupture histories. "Great" earthquakes, such as last month's, happen too infrequently in any one place to build a reliable statistical picture, Dr. Lerner-Lam says. "And you can't just send down a back hoe" to dig a trench along a fault and read the history written in layers of sediment.

Moreover, on land, satellite telemetry can relay data from sensors near a fault at the blink of an eye. At sea, data typically have to be recorded and retrieved later, unless sensors are linked to buoys or tied into undersea cables.

And it remains difficult to watch stress patterns change along faults in the seafloor crust - something terrestrial seismologists are doing for many land faults. Such patterns help researchers pinpoint faults likely to experience the next snap.

In addition, the time delay in refining estimates of earthquake strength can be troublesome. Fifteen minutes after the quake occurred, it was deemed strong enough to generate tsunamis - enough time for a "head for high ground" warning in many places. But it took several hours to determine that what initially had been pegged as a magnitude 8 earthquake actually was magnitude 9 - 10 times more powerful. That can make an enormous difference in how far inland waves actually go or how destructive they can be, Dr. Raad says.

For the tsunami problem itself, the most immediate payoff will come from deploying more buoys similar to those the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is using off the West Coast and Hawaii. Pressure sensors on the sea floor are linked to the buoys, which can relay data to warning specialists on land.

Armed with that data, computer models currently running as prototypes could yield estimates of where and when a tsunami would make landfall and how far inland it would run, says Vasily Tito of NOAA's Pacific Marine and Environmental Laboratory.

Meanwhile, researchers are testing new high-frequency sonar techniques to monitor large-scale shifts in strain patterns around submarine faults and to "dig" into sea floor sediment for evidence of breaks in the layers. The breaks would reveal the sizes and relative history of temblors at a given location. Core samples would then allow scientists to date the quakes.

Others are working on how to minimize tsunami fatalities. With colleagues from six universities around the US, Raad is developing computer -simulation capabilities that will allow for more effective tsunami building codes and zoning practices. He notes that merely placing parking lots on a waterfront gives a tsunami steel-and-rubber ammunition to knock out buildings that might have withstood the tsunami itself.

Within the next five to 10 years, he says, the group hopes to have developed tools that will allow planners to play "what if" as they look for ways to reduce vulnerability - with scenarios tailored to the layouts of communities, undersea geography, and the direction from which a tsunami strikes.

KEY SUBDUCTION ZONES The major trenches on the map are located where tectonic plates meet, with one being driven under another, and are among the key areas where earthquakes can trigger tsunamis. SOURCE: UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY SURVEY; SCOTT WALLACE - STAFF

Asia Toll Rises to 155,000; Tsunami Warning System Sought

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The death toll from Asia's earthquake and tsunamis climbed to 155,000 as more bodies were uncovered in Indonesia, the country worst hit by the deadliest disaster in almost three decades.

Asia's leaders may ask the U.S. for help setting up the Indian Ocean's first tsunami warning system, after the Dec. 26 earthquake of magnitude 9 triggered giant waves from Thailand to Somalia, destroying everything in its path to leave about 5 million people homeless.

``We need the U.S. government's help for the installation of an early tsunami warning system,'' Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra told reporters, a day before he meets U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and Florida Governor Jeb Bush tomorrow in Bangkok as they start their four-day trip to the region.

Indonesia raised its death toll by a fifth to more than 94,000 as rescuers reached remote areas in Aceh province for the first time. Aid began to reach the survivors as ships, planes and helicopters bearing food, clothing, clean water and medicines converged on Indonesia and other countries.

U.S. Marines scheduled to arrive in Sri Lanka this week will boost relief efforts by airlifting clean water, food and medicine to coastal communities in the Asian nation second-hardest hit nation. Almost 30,000 Sri Lankans perished in the giant waves, with more than 600,000 homeless.

``They're helpless,'' said M.B. Harasgama, 74, a teacher who organized the distribution of supplies donated by Sri Lankans unaffected by tsunamis which struck the island more than a week ago. ``They lost everything and have to begin their lives.''

No Warning

Indonesia and Sri Lanka, where Powell and Bush are also scheduled to visit, were the two countries worst affected Thaksin, whose country's death toll passed 5,000 today, said the lack of warning that giant waves were about to hit coastal areas contributed to the high death toll.

``The country must have the system at any cost because damage was enormous without it,'' he told reporters.

The installation of an Indian Ocean warning system will be on the agenda when Powell and Bush meet world leaders at a tsunami summit in Jakarta on Jan. 6, Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda told MetroTV in Jakarta yesterday. Coordinating more than $2 billion dollars in aid pledged to relief efforts and possible debt restructuring for affected countries will also be discussed, he said.

Thailand's Deaths

Thailand's death toll from tsunamis that hit the nation's six southern coastal provinces rose to 5,046 today. About half of the deaths have been overseas tourists, the Disaster Prevention Department said yesterday. About 3,810 people remain missing and 8,457 were injured, the department said.

Thaksin said the Thai government doesn't want financial aid from foreign donors because it can fund relief and reconstruction with its own money and domestic donations.

Powell and Bush, brother of President George W. Bush, left for Asia yesterday. They will participate in the summit to be hosted by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that will include Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and other world leaders. Thaksin will send his Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai to the summit.

The prime ministers of Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea have said they will attend. United Nations Secretary- General Kofi Annan also will be there.

Need Organization

Annan will visit Aceh on Jan. 7 as well as other regions hit by the tsunami, including Sri Lanka, said United Nations emergency relief coordinator Jan Egeland.

``I think it's great that they're getting together because there are so many parties on the bandwagon now,'' said John Crawford, a member of the council for the Hong Kong Committee of Unicef, the United Nations children's fund. ``Money is one thing, but you have to get the aid on the ground, and that requires organization.''

At least 9,451 people died in India in four states and the Andaman and Nicobar islands, with at least 5,511 people still missing, a government official said today.

More than 386,000 people have taken shelter in at least 551 camps that have been set up, said V.P. Pasrija, a consultant at India's National Disaster Management Division of the Ministry of Home Affairs.

Monsoon Rains

Hampering efforts of relief agencies are monsoon rains, washed-out roads, flattened infrastructure and destroyed communications facilities.

The death toll may rise as monsoon rains threaten to create breeding conditions for mosquitoes, which can spread malaria and dengue fever, doctors said. The threat of disease is being compounded by the decomposition of unburied bodies.

``There were about 1,500 bodies but not enough space in the mortuary,'' said K.G. Krishantha, 26, a volunteer relief worker standing outside Karapatiya General Hospital where injured tsunami victims are treated. ``Bodies were piled outside.''

The Asian Development Bank today pledged up to $325 million in aid to be made immediately available to help finance reconstruction and rehabilitation work after receiving requests from Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Maldives, the agency said in an e- mailed statement.

``This is an unprecedented disaster and we are moving quickly to assist these countries in their hour of need,'' said bank President Tadao Chino in the statement.

Aid Pledged

Japan is the biggest donor nation of the 44 that have promised aid, pledging $500 million. The U.S. has promised $350 million, the U.K. $96 million and Sweden $75 million. Canada doubled its aid promise to $80 million yesterday. China increased its contribution 23-fold to $60 million, and Taiwan upped its pledge 10-fold to $50 million. The list of donations took up 16 pages single-spaced, Egeland said.

The overall number of dead from the quake and tsunamis would make the Asia quake the worst natural disaster since the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, China, that killed more than 250,000 people. Confirmed deaths reported by countries affected by tsunamis totaled 138,940 at 6 p.m. in Hong Kong, with about 16,000 listed as missing, according to a compilation of government reports by Bloomberg News.

World Bank James Wolfensohn said on ABC's ``This Week'' program in the U.S. that the aid pledged so far will go to ``immediate reconstruction needs. And after that, there will be a great deal more coming.''

The UN must provide food to 1.8 million people in areas affected by the disaster, Egeland said. That figure includes 700,000 people in Sri Lanka and 1 million in Indonesia.

To contact the reporters on this story:

Soraya Permatasari in Jakarta at  soraya@bloomberg.net

Sri Jegarajah in Singapore at  sjegarajah@bloomberg.net



To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Sue Hill in Hong Kong at  shill6@bloomberg.net

Tsunami Warning Failed to Get Through-Thai Expert

By Crispian Balmer

PHUKET, Thailand (Reuters) - A Thai expert said on Monday he tried to warn the government a deadly tsunami might be sweeping toward tourist-packed beaches, but couldn't find anyone to take his calls.

Samith Dhammasaroj said he was sure a tsunami was coming as soon as he heard about the massive Dec. 26 earthquake off Indonesia's Sumatra island that measured magnitude 9.0 -- the world's biggest in 40 years.

"I tried to call the director-general of the meteorological office, but his phone was always busy," Samith said as he described his desperate attempts to generate an alert which might have saved thousands of lives.

"I tried to phone the office, but it was a Sunday and no-one was there," said the former chief of the meteorological department now charged with setting up an early warning disaster system for Thailand.

"I knew that one day we would have this type of tsunami. I warned that there would be a big disaster," he told reporters.

"Everyone laughed at me and said I was a bad guy who wanted to ruin the tourist industry," he added.

The tsunami took just 75 minutes to hit the beaches and islands of Thailand's Andaman Sea coast, 375 miles from the earthquake's epicenter.

Now more than 5,100 people are dead, nearly half of them foreign tourists who abandoned Europe's cold, dark winter for golden sands and turquoise seas, and left 3,800 missing, nearly 1,700 of them foreigners.

Downstairs from where he spoke, dozens of foreigners were still scanning message boards, trying to match grisly photos of bloated, battered bodies to the smiling pictures of missing friends and relatives.

"I feel very sorry for the people who died," Samith said. "I will make sure this thing does not happen again."

The early warning system for Thailand -- which has not had a natural disaster in living memory worse than floods during the annual monsoon -- would be ready in six months, Samith promised.

"We will make the system very efficient," he said.

ROARING SEA

Preliminary investigations by a team of six Japanese experts showed that the wall of water hit beaches along the Thai coast at different speeds and heights, with the phenomenon exacerbated by a high tide that fed the tsunami as it neared land.

Khao Lak beach, lined with hotels and resorts especially popular among Scandinavians and Germans just north of Phuket, took the worst hit from waves up to 10.5 meters (34 ft) high.

They roared up Khao Lak's gently sloping beach at speeds of up to 8 meters a second (29 kilometers an hour), said Professor Hideo Matsutomi, who led the Japanese team.

"There have been six major tsunami in this region since 1797, but I think this last tsunami was the biggest," he said.

Tsunami are much more frequent in the Pacific Ocean and countries there have long established an early warning system to protect them from disaster.

Samith said countries in the Indian Ocean had to follow suit and set up a network of underwater sea monitors which might cost as little as $20 million to build.

Warnings of imminent inundations would be sent out automatically on television and radio and by text messages to mobile phones.

The system would help woo back tourists scared away by the mass loss of life, Samith said.

"No-one can predict an earthquake, but you can predict a tsunami," he said. "We will build a good system."

"We will help tourists come back to Thailand."

Tsunami warning systems: The Indian context

Tsunami alarm: desi model or global club?

Ashok B Sharma

Is technology the ultimate solution? Could a monitoring and warning system have prevented the large-scale destruction that one witnessed last week? Why didn’t India install a warning system so far? These are among the questions being asked, both within and outside the scientific community, post-Tsunami. Even as answers are few and far between, Tsunami has come as a wake-up call for the government. While relevance of technology in predicting Tsunami is one of the key issues being debated right now, a way forward is clearly being chalked out.

For one, the Union ministry of science and technology is planning to hold a brainstorming session sometime this month with National Geophysical Research Institute, National Institute of Oceanography and Department of Ocean Development for devising an appropriate Tsunami warning system. Also, steps are being chalked out to strengthen the Indian station in Antarctica, Maitri, to monitor seismicity in and around Antarctica and Indian Ocean.

Commitment has come from the minister for science and technology and ocean development Kapil Sibal already. He is on record saying that proper logistics for monitoring and warning will be put in place, even though Tsunami is a rare occurrence.

The initiatives that the establishment wants to roll out include undertaking deep ocean assessment and reporting system, coastal barometry, and increasing the number of data buoys in the surrounding seas from existing 20 to 30. The buoys are expected to monitor 6 km below the ocean surface, by connecting the aquatic tidal gauges to a satellite. The project cost: a mere Rs 125 crore (~USD 28 million*)!

Meanwhile, there’s a difference in view as far as joining the Tsunami warning system in the Pacific is concerned.

For instance, the US Geological Society (USGS) has alleged that the Tsunami-hit countries has not put in place any warning system for mitigating the disaster. USGC spokesperson Carolyn Bell is reported to have said: “We support the Tsunami warning system in the Pacific only. Of course this earthquake was not in the Pacific Ocean.” According to her, creating a Tsunami warning centre in the Indian Ocean will be a challenge. “This crosses so many countries and so many boundaries in that part of the world and the warning system would have to be so geographically diverse. We’re talking about educating people to what the warning means, what you have to do,” she says.

India thinks differently. Mr Sibal says that India will not be a member of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, a body set up exclusively for the Pacific Rim countries. “Being a member of this body will not help us as the mandate of the body is for the specific region. Our seismic zone is Indo-Australian plate as distinct from the Pacific plate. We should therefore ask for relevant data from them and construct our own model for monitoring and forecast,” he says. The minister also said that India will network with Indonesia, Thailand and Myanmar in future for exchange of relevant data. Whatever the arrangement, experts argue that a suitable monitoring system could have mitigated some of the colossal damages. Though earthquakes and volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted on a short-term basis, the Tsunami effect, which takes longer time to reach distant places, can be predicted at ease, they say.

But, the Indian government insists that the country did not opt for such a system as Tsunami has not been a frequent occurrence in the region. According to Mr Sibal, the first Tsunami killed the forces of Greek invader Alexander the Great, and the second Tsunami occurred in 1883. Secretary in the department of ocean development Harsh K Gupta agrees that Tsunami is rare: Noted geologist, Dr George Pararas-Carayannis, counters: “Destructive Tsunamis are not uncommon in the Bay of Bengal or along the Sunda Trench.”

* Not in original text

Post slowdown...

As with every news event, the initial hype is over and people are moving on to other things. The news well is drying, and since India has announced a plan to set up an 'advance warning system' there's not much else left to cover on that front for the journalists.

As if to prove the trend - I'm travelling out of town too for the next few days. I'll still post your stories if you send them to me, but it's going to be a slow few days otherwise.

BREAKING NEWS: (?) A fresh earthquake in the Indian Ocean sets off Tsunami (yet again) (?)

MORE UPDATES: (11:01 PM IST)
Thankfully it turned out to be nothing to worry about. As far as I know the Indian shores weren't affected. At least we weren't believing some kook in a pickup-truck this time!

--------------------------------------------------

UPDATE: (2:56 PM IST)
(1) Magnitude 6.5 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA - 2005/01/01 06:25:44 (UTC)
(2) Magnitude 5.8 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA - 2005/01/01 04:03:12 (UTC)

[See all observations]

--------------------------------------------------

DON'T PANIC!

I've heard unconfirmed reports that a fresh earthquake measuring about 6.5 on the richter scale (first cut conservative approximation) has just occured in the Indian Ocean. If I remember correctly 7.0 is the minimum threshold to set off tsunamis, and if indeed all of this is true, a tsunami (most probably non-destructive, yet to be treated as dangerous) might strike the shores of India around 2:30 - 2:45 PM, IST Jan 1, 2005 (which is about now!).

Guest Commentary: Allan Donaldson

Professor Allan Donaldson of Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada makes a very important point on the enormous value of promoting citizen awareness on the cause and effects of Tsunamis.

From:     Allan Donaldson
Date:     Saturday, January 01, 2005 9:08 PM
To:       tsunami @ cheeni.net
Subject:  COMMENTARY ON THE 2004 BOXING DAY TSUNAMI

The Newsletter for the March 1978 (PDF, 2.71MB) International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) contains a section outlining "Proposals for a tsunami educational programme", clearly outlining sensible ways in which to involve members of the scientific community, co-ordinators of the Tsunami Warning System and members of the general public.

Here we are, more than 26 years later, and although an impressive warning system has since been established for tsunami threats within the Pacific Ocean, little has been done for the other oceans, and it is clear that the envisioned educational program has a long way to go. Although a glossy 15 page informative brochure can be downloaded from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website, this is of little help to coastal inhabitants lacking computers (or lacking awareness of the availability of this information & advisability of acquiring it, for those who do have computers). Grassroots education at the local level is absolutely essential. One can only surmise that such education has not taken place in countries around the Indian Ocean because of the lack of support from local governments -- in spite of several such countries having sent delegates to ITIC meetings for many years.

In the few days since the devastating Indian Ocean 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, considerable rhetoric about the need for effective warning systems has focussed on continuously monitored submarine pressure sensors and tide gauges, such as those now in place for the Pacific. This is all well and good, and should be the ultimate goal for all ocean basins. In the meantime, however, a simple program of education should be given priority, and procedures for cautionary tsunami warnings should be put in place immediately. When a deepwater submarine seismic event rated at Magnitude 8.0 or higher (perhaps even >M 7.0?) -- or a volcanic event comparable to the 1883 collapse of Krakatoa that killed more than 36,000 -- takes place, provisionary warnings should be immediately issued to all shorelines within the range of a potential tsunami. Pressure sensors and tide gauges certainly serve to refine information about geometry and force of ensuing tsunamis, but precious time is lost in analysis. If local populations occupying threatened areas have been provided with advance education about the potential results of a tsunami, then straightforward notice (radio, TV, loudspeakers) that a destructive wave MIGHT strike their shore within X hours should be sufficient to get them moving to higher ground. Similarly, tourists so alerted would realize that a visit to the rain forests would be a wiser choice than the beaches, until an "all clear" notice comes through. Submarine earthquakes higher than M8.0 are relatively rare events, and because they commonly are accompanied by significant tsunami-producing offsets along faults/plate boundaries, warning of a probable tsunami immediately on detection of the epicentre would hardly be "calling wolf". Had such a protocol been in place for countries in and around the Indian Ocean at the time of the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, the death toll could have been dramatically reduced.

Allan Donaldson
Professor of Earth Sciences
Carleton University
Ottawa, Canada
jadonald@ccs.carleton.ca

Is a (grass roots) Citizens' SMS network a good idea ?

As reported earlier here on this site ad-hoc SMS text messages have saved lots of lives this time. This has convinced many to believe that social SMS circles may be the best option to warn people about impending tragedies. I have two messages from readers on the topic of SMS sending.

Reader, Rohit Gupta writes:

It is already being hinted that citizens' SMS networks may be the only workable solution for tsunami warnings.

Despite their unquestionable success, I see two problems with legitimizing this:
(1) Rumour control: Needless panic will result from elaborate SMS messages designed to scare.
(2)Individuals being left out: Cell phone users who are not particularly social or having few contacts in the SMS generation may never get the message from a social circle of SMS senders.

The solution I would like to see is a consortium of telcos that acts as the central contact for disseminating warnings and alerts. In addition TV and Radio stations should be set up in the region to accept warning interrupts from the law enforcement agencies like in the developed world.

And this is exactly the solution that reader Ryan M. Ferris has in mind:

• Everyone has cell phones capable of receiving SMS Alerts.
  
• Users subscribe to alerts of their choosing (tsunami, bio-terror, crime, etc.)
  
• A system sends the alerts with instructions
  
• People follow the instructions (more detailed instructions are found on the wireless phone browser)

What do you think, gentle reader ?