New tsunami alert triggers panic in India

The panic in the air was very visible today as the news spread like wild fire by word of mouth here in Chennai. One local television station in particular contributed largely to the panic frenzy by broadcasting the voices of agitated amateur correspondents from various parts of the state while playing file images of the tsunami from the 26th (Sunday). For the better part of 4 hours the city was at a stand still, offices closed down, people fled onto the streets causing traffic jams and sane voices (including me) who could plainly view it as an irrational panic response were never heard.

This is what happens when a structured disaster management system isn't in place and warnings are issued. The cost of a false alarm can be very high, and unfortunately I suspect that today will be the first of several false alarms for this region in the coming days. There were also opportunistic looters raiding abandoned business districts. The phone lines were jammed with frantic callers hitting busy tones and further adding to the frenzy. Rumors flew thick and fast - it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that many were under the impression for a few hours that all other parts of Madras except their own was under water!

A few eager Police units broadcasted an evacuation message on their bull horns, this was according to some the start of the panic attack that gripped the city.

It's pretty clear - not all tsunamis are destructive, and given the current infrastructure it's pretty darn difficult to give an accurate early warning. Yet the message that went out to the public was designed to induce fear. Immature news media only serve to increase the panic.

Mark Tran and agencies
Thursday December 30, 2004


People run for higher ground in Cuddalore, 115 miles south of Madras, after hearing of possible further tsunamis. Photograph: Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP/Getty

Thousands of people in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu today fled to higher ground amid reports that the Indian government had issued a fresh tsunami alert.

The reports came despite the absence of any large aftershock and, as police sirens blared on beaches in Tamil Nadu - one of the areas hardest hit by Sunday's tidal waves - people streamed inland on foot or crammed into any vehicles they could find. Some shouted: "Waves are coming! Waves are coming!"

However, there were no immediate signs of giant waves, and the US Geological Survey said it was unaware of any aftershock large enough to trigger a fresh tsunami. The Indian government subsequently downgraded the alert, but the warning had already created panic.

A home ministry official said an alert had been issued as a precaution. "It is for a precautionary measure based on some information we have," the official said, without giving further details.

"A number of experts outside [the] country are suggesting that another tsunami may hit [the] Indian Ocean today afternoon in the event of an earthquake of high intensity, which may happen near [the] Australian region," the home ministry said in a message to state governments.

Adding to public concern, police in Tamil Nadu said aftershocks in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, near the epicentre of the quake that triggered the tsunami, were "likely" to cause high waves. They evacuated hundreds of residents from some coastal areas.

However, in Port Blair, the capital of the Andaman and Nicobar islands, local officials drove through the streets appealing for calm over loudspeakers, saying there was no imminent danger. "There is no reason to panic," an official in the back of a jeep said through a megaphone. "You can go back to your jobs or your home, wherever you please. There is no imminent danger."

As officials tried to calm growing fears, rescuers plied the dense forests on the islands, where authorities fear that as many as 10,000 people could be buried in mud and thick vegetation.

Many hungry villagers were surviving on coconut milk, rescuers said. Mohammad Yusef, a 60-year-old fisherman who fled his village and was sheltering in a Catholic church in Port Blair along with around 800 others, said all 15 villages on the coast of Nicobar island had been destroyed.

"There's not a single hut which is standing," he told the Associated Press. "Everything is gone. Most of the people have gone up to the hills and are afraid to come down."

Officials estimate that Sunday's tsunami killed at least 13,230 people in India, although only 7,330 deaths have been confirmed. In some areas, whole communities have been wiped out. The waves killed more than 87,000 people from Asia to Africa.

Panic was fuelled by one television station that reported a tsunami had hit and showed file footage of large waves. In Nagappattinam, on India's mainland - where more than 4,000 people died on Sunday - thousands of terrified residents, some carrying their last remaining belongings in suitcases balanced on their heads, ran through the streets and streamed out of the town in cars, buses, trucks and tractors.

"It's coming," resident Thamil Vanan said as he headed for safety, carrying his toddler son. "We saw what happened here - I don't want to stay, I'm not mad." But some people gathered on bridges to watch for waves.

Meanwhile, India has become the first country stricken by the Indian Ocean tsunami to decide to set up an early warning system, despite the expense and the fact that another tsunami may not occur for another 50 years or more.

Affected countries had no warning of Sunday's devastating sea wave in the area and are, therefore, not tracked. However, a system to raise the alarm and save lives already covers much of the Pacific Ocean.

As the death toll has risen, calls for a warning system have grown and India, which closely monitors other weather dangers such as monsoons, said it would now set one up.

"India will have deep ocean assessment reporting systems to monitor any change in the deep ocean ... data will be fed to a satellite which will provide real-time information on any change in ocean behaviour," Kapil Sibal, the minister for science and technology, told a news conference.

India had previously ruled out such a system because it had never been hit by a tsunami. "No government thought of it ... the last recorded tsunami has been in 1883. It was not in the horizon of our thoughts. Besides, tsunamis are not seen in the ocean, and these gain height only when they approach the shore," Mr Sibal added.

Although the authorities knew of the earthquake that had hit Sumatra, they could not assess that it would cause the tsunamis that struck the Indian coast two and a half hours later.

Economic analysts said that, although India was one of worst-affected countries in terms of deaths, the economic impact of the disaster would be minimal.

Private economic think-tanks and industry groups said Asia's fourth-largest economy would comfortably meet the costs of reconstruction and relief, estimated at £238.3m.

"Neither manufacturing nor any other economic activity is going to be adversely affected, barring shipping and tourism in Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar," Mahendra Sanghi, the president of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry, a leading industry lobby group, said.